Market Intelligence



The financial markets influence decisions taken by borrowers and investors alike. We follow the stories that affect financial market data and put them in a news feed of market intelligence below.

What will the election mean for the markets?    December 2019

The Telegraph’s Tim Wallace looks at various predictions for the market with different election outcomes, with ING predicting 10-year bonds could almost double to 1.5% by late 2020 under a high-spending Labour government. However, investors favour Labour’s Brexit plans as they are much closer to simply remaining in the EU than the Conservatives’ proposals.
The Daily Telegraph

UK economy stagnates ahead of general election    December 2019

The economy suffered its weakest three months since early 2009 with ONS data showing growth flat in October after two months of declines. The ONS said: “Increases across the services sector [were] offset by falls in manufacturing with factories continuing the weak performance seen since April. Construction also declined across the last three months with a notable drop in house building and infrastructure in October.”
Financial Times The Daily Telegraph

Small builders hit by housing market uncertainty    December 2019

Research by Price Bailey has found that more small housebuilders have gone out of business in the most recent 12-month period than at any point since 2015, with 343 lost in the year to September due to stagnating house prices and rises in both raw materials and labour costs. "Subdued activity in London and the South East and falling prices as people defer purchases due to Brexit uncertainty have all taken their toll," said the firm’s Paul Pittman.
The Times The Sun Yorkshire Post

CBI expects modest growth    December 2019

The latest report from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) suggests economic growth for the next two years will remain "modest", at 1.3% this year and 1.2% in 2020 before rising to 1.8% in 2021. The CBI says this is based on an assumption that the UK leaves the EU by 31 January and has "clear line of sight" to a trade deal involving alignment with EU rules. CBI chief economist, Rain Newton-Smith, said: "Transforming a lost decade of productivity will only be possible if supported by a good Brexit deal - one that keeps the UK aligned with EU rules, essential for frictionless trade, along with protecting the UK's world-beating services sector, which accounts for 80% of our economy.”
The Independent The I Daily Express The Daily Telegraph

EU’s country-by-country reporting plans widely rejected    November 2019

Ireland was among twelve EU countries to vote against a proposal to introduce country-by-country reporting for multi-nationals. The move was designed to open up to scrutiny those companies which shift profits from high to low tax jurisdictions, such as Apple, Facebook and Google, to avoid paying an estimated $500bn a year in taxes. Ireland’s decision to vote against the proposed directive coincided with a warning from the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) that the country’s economy could collapse if there was a global clampdown on tax avoidance. The IFAC said half of all of corporate taxes paid in the nation come from just 10 global companies. Luxembourg, Malta, Cyprus, Latvia, Slovenia, Estonia, Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, and Croatia were among the other countries to vote against the plans. Sweden voted against because amid fears the directive might water down their higher standards on transparency. France, Spain and the Nether lands were among those voting for the proposals. Germany abstained while the UK did not vote because it is in purdah before the general election. Elena Gaita, a senior policy officer at Transparency International, said: “It’s an outrage that member states have once again put the interests of big business above those of citizens.”
The Guardian The I

Business owners potentially missing out on £3.74bn in annual interest payments    November 2019

Business owners could be missing out on £3.74bn in annual interest payments according to Aldermore. The specialist bank says £382.1bn is currently held in business bank accounts with high street banks, which could be earning just 0.02% in interest. Business owners, who are concerned about locking away their money for long periods of time, can earn almost ten times the interest of a business current account and still retain access to their funds, by using an easy access business savings account with an alternate banking institution. Ewan Edwards, director of savings at Aldermore, said: “Business owners who are worried about uncertainty impacting their business and want to have cash on hand should be aware that they can still earn higher rates and have instant access to their money”.
Business Money